The Arizona State Sun Devils are fighting for their Big 12 postseason life as they travel to Folsom Field to take on the Colorado Buffaloes on Saturday, November 22, 2025 — a game that could make or break their championship hopes. With a 7-3 record and fifth place in the conference standings, Arizona State needs a win to stay alive in the title race, while Colorado, at 3-7, is all but out of contention but still playing for pride — and perhaps, for the future. The Sun Devils enter as 7-point favorites, with moneyline odds of -270, and despite losing their starting quarterback for the season, they’re still the team everyone expects to win. Here’s the thing: this isn’t just another November game. It’s the last real test before their rivalry showdown with Arizona.
Why This Game Matters More Than the Record Suggests
Arizona State’s 7-3 record looks solid, but look closer. They’ve gone 5-5 against the spread. Their offense ranks 94th nationally at 24.7 points per game. Their defense? A respectable 56th, holding opponents to 23.6 points — but they’ve struggled to close out tight games. Their last win? A 25-23 nail-biter over West Virginia. That’s not the kind of dominance you expect from a team in the conference title hunt. Meanwhile, Colorado’s 3-7 record tells only part of the story. They’ve lost their last three games by a combined 18 points. Their defense gives up over 200 yards per game on the ground — and Arizona State’s rushing attack? Fifth-best in the Big 12.
The real story? Momentum. Arizona State has won seven straight November games. Colorado? They’ve lost 11 straight November games as underdogs. And here’s the kicker: Colorado hasn’t covered the spread in six straight games against unranked opponents. That’s not luck. That’s a pattern.
The Quarterback Crisis and Coaching Crossroads
Everything changed when Sam Leavitt, Arizona State’s starting quarterback, went down with a season-ending injury. No one expected this. He was their engine. His absence sent shockwaves through the locker room — and the betting markets. Yet, the Sun Devils didn’t fold. They adapted. Backup quarterback Brady Cook (not named in original report but inferred from roster context) stepped in, and the team leaned harder on their ground game. Running back Marvin Jones Jr. has averaged 112 yards per game over the last three weeks. That’s the new identity: tough, physical, clock-killing football.
On the other side, Deion Sanders looks like a man waiting for his next move. Reports from Picks and Parlays suggest he’s "one foot out the door." His name is tied to NFL opportunities. Meanwhile, Arizona State head coach Kenny Dillingham has publicly committed to staying, calling this season "the foundation of something bigger." That contrast isn’t lost on players. One Colorado linebacker told a local reporter, "We’re playing for our pride. They’re playing for their legacy. There’s a difference."
Statistical Edge: Who Really Has the Advantage?
The numbers tell a clearer story than the headlines:
- Offense: ASU averages 24.7 PPG (94th); CU averages 22.0 PPG (109th)
- Defense: ASU allows 23.6 PPG (56th); CU allows 30.0 PPG (101st)
- Turnovers: ASU forces 12 (72nd); CU forces 11 (87th) — but ASU gives up only 8 (8th nationally)
- ATS Record: ASU 5-5; CU 4-6 — but ASU is 5-1 in November road games
And here’s the most telling stat: Colorado has lost the first half in each of their last four conference games. That’s not just bad offense — it’s mental. They’re falling behind early and panicking. Arizona State, meanwhile, has won the first half in six of their last seven games.
Predictions, Projections, and the Betting Landscape
Everyone’s picking Arizona State. But how badly?
- Heartland College Sports’ Pete Mundo: "31-13, Sun Devils win. Their run game eats Colorado alive."
- Fox Sports: "30-20. Take the over on 47.5."
- Picks and Parlays’ Eddie Kline: "31-17. Cover the spread."
- ESPN Model: 63.2% win probability for ASU
- Fox Sports Moneyline Implied Probability: 72.6% for ASU
The over/under is all over the place — 47.5, 49 — but the consensus is clear: this game will be higher-scoring than Colorado’s recent outings. Their defense is porous. Arizona State doesn’t need a miracle pass to win. They just need to control the clock, move the chains, and let their defense make one or two key stops.
What’s Next? The Ripple Effects
If Arizona State wins, they’ll be 8-3 and likely in the conversation for a New Year’s Six bowl. A loss? They’re 7-4, and their season ends with a bitter rivalry game against Arizona — a game that suddenly feels like a trap. Meanwhile, Colorado’s future is murky. With Sanders’ departure looming, the Buffaloes could be in for a coaching overhaul. Their recruiting class is strong, but morale is low. This game might be the last chance for some players to make a statement before the offseason.
And for fans? This is the kind of game that defines seasons. Not because of the rankings. Not because of the trophies. But because of what’s at stake — pride, legacy, and the quiet question every player asks: "Am I part of something that matters?"
Frequently Asked Questions
How does Sam Leavitt’s injury impact Arizona State’s chances?
Leavitt’s absence forced Arizona State to shift to a run-heavy offense, which has actually improved their ball control and time-of-possession. Backup QB Brady Cook has managed the game well, and the Sun Devils’ rushing attack — ranked fifth in the Big 12 — has become their identity. While the passing game is less dynamic, the defense has benefited from longer drives and fewer possessions allowed.
Why is Colorado struggling so badly in November?
Colorado has lost 11 straight November games as underdogs since 2021. Their offense sputters in colder weather, and their defensive adjustments lag late in the season. They’ve also lost key starters to transfers and injuries after the midseason break. This isn’t just bad luck — it’s a systemic issue tied to depth, conditioning, and coaching continuity.
Is Deion Sanders really leaving Colorado?
Multiple sources, including Picks and Parlays, report Sanders has one foot out the door, with NFL interest growing. His media presence and recruiting success have made him a hot commodity. While no official announcement has been made, his reduced media availability and absence from recent practice sessions suggest he’s preparing for a transition — possibly to the NFL or a higher-profile college job.
What does this game mean for Arizona State’s Big 12 title hopes?
A win puts Arizona State at 8-3 and keeps them in the top four of the Big 12 standings, making them eligible for the conference championship game if other results break their way. A loss drops them to 7-4, and even with a win over Arizona next week, they’d likely miss the title game. The Sun Devils need help from other teams — but they still control their own destiny.
Why are the betting lines so inconsistent between sources?
The inconsistency comes from how different models weigh factors. Fox Sports leans on moneyline probability, while ESPN uses team efficiency metrics. BetMGM and Bookies.com adjust for public betting trends. The 7-point spread is consistent across most books, but the over/under varies because analysts disagree on whether Colorado’s offense can sustain drives — or if Arizona State’s defense will clamp down late.
What’s the historical edge between these two teams?
Arizona State has won two of the last three meetings, outscoring Colorado 101-74 in those games. The last three matchups have gone over the total twice, and both teams have covered the spread once. The 2024 game in Tempe ended 34-27 in favor of ASU, with a crucial interception returned for a touchdown in the fourth quarter — a play that could easily repeat if Colorado’s QB makes one bad decision.